Books & Sources

Every claim here can be traced back to something someone read.

23 sources in the library. Add what you are reading, with the passage that made you stop.

Data & visual evidence

Charts, figures and historical documents cited across the Agora, each with its provenance.

Visual evidenceClaim challenged

GDP per capita against mean life satisfaction, 1972–2022

Challenges Above a threshold, further growth in output no longer translates into reported wellbeing.

Provenance Maddison Project Database & World Happiness Report · 2023

Method Real GDP per capita indexed to 1972 (2017 PPP); life satisfaction is the global population-weighted mean on a 0–10 Cantril ladder. Series are not causally identified.

Added by @amara

Visual evidenceClaim supported

Test loss falls as a power law in training compute

Supports Tutoring quality tracks model capability, which is currently a predictable function of compute — so personalisation improves as systems scale.

Provenance Replication of published scaling-law figures, three model sizes · 2024

Method Median loss across held-out evaluation tasks, log-log axes, power-law fits of the form L = AC^-α. Loss is a proxy for capability, not for pedagogy.

Added by @kenji

Visual evidenceClaim challenged

Survey map of a border town divided by a national boundary, 1887

Challenges Geography sets the stage but not the outcome — identical terrain diverges under different institutions.

Provenance Geographic commission survey, archival scan · 1887

Method Hand survey at roughly 1:50,000. Useful as a control: one basin, one climate, one population, two sets of institutions.

Added by @noor

Lectures & clips

Timestamped passages of video and audio, quoted for the exact argument they make.

Lecture clipClaim supported14:32 – 16:15

Lecture: the limits of the growth imperative

Supports Rich economies can raise wellbeing while holding material throughput flat.

The question is not whether we can grow, but whether the things we are growing are the things we said we wanted.

…if you hold throughput constant and keep improving allocation, you still get better outcomes for two or three decades. That is not degrowth as austerity; it is growth measured in something other than tonnage.

Provenance Public university lecture series, recorded · 2022

Added by @amara

Lecture clipClaim challenged08:05 – 10:40

Seminar: what a tutor actually does

Challenges Adaptive systems standardise instruction because they optimise the measurable part of learning.

A tutor's central act is deciding what not to teach today. No system optimising for completion will ever make that decision.

…the human tutor withholds. They see that the student is tired, or defensive, or one conversation away from giving up, and they slow down. Completion metrics punish exactly that behaviour.

Provenance Learning sciences seminar, recorded · 2023

Added by @kenji

Currently reading

Book

Guns, Germs, and Steel

Jared Diamond · 1997

A geographic account of why some societies industrialised earlier, centred on crops, domesticable animals and continental axes.

Book

Why Nations Fail

Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson · 2012

Places inclusive versus extractive political institutions, rather than geography or culture, at the centre of long-run prosperity.

Book

The Shallows

Nicholas Carr · 2010

Argues that networked media reshapes reading into scanning, trading depth of comprehension for breadth of exposure.

Books

Long arguments, read slowly and together.

Book

Development as Freedom

Amartya Sen · 1999

Argues that development should be measured as the expansion of real freedoms people enjoy, not as income growth alone.

Book

Guns, Germs, and Steel

Jared Diamond · 1997

A geographic account of why some societies industrialised earlier, centred on crops, domesticable animals and continental axes.

Book

Why Nations Fail

Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson · 2012

Places inclusive versus extractive political institutions, rather than geography or culture, at the centre of long-run prosperity.

Book

Thinking, Fast and Slow

Daniel Kahneman · 2011

Two systems of thought — fast, intuitive judgement and slow, deliberate reasoning — and the predictable errors of the first.

Book

The Human Condition

Hannah Arendt · 1958

Distinguishes labour, work and action, and defends the public realm as the space where human plurality becomes visible.

Book

The Shallows

Nicholas Carr · 2010

Argues that networked media reshapes reading into scanning, trading depth of comprehension for breadth of exposure.

Book

Seeing Like a State

James C. Scott · 1998

How schemes to improve the human condition fail when they replace local, practical knowledge with legible administrative abstractions.

Book

Thinking in Systems: A Primer

Donella H. Meadows · 2008

A short, generous introduction to stocks, flows, feedback and leverage points — the grammar behind most arguments about growth and limits.

Book

The Structure of Scientific Revolutions

Thomas S. Kuhn · 1962

The account of paradigms and anomalies that reframed science as a social practice punctuated by crisis, not a smooth accumulation of facts.

Book

Poor Economics

Abhijit V. Banerjee & Esther Duflo · 2011

Field experiments on how poor households actually decide about food, schooling, health and credit — an argument for small, testable claims over grand theories.

Book

Debt: The First 5,000 Years

David Graeber · 2011

An anthropological history arguing that credit preceded coinage, and that debt is a moral language before it is an economic one.

Book

Discipline and Punish

Michel Foucault · 1975

The birth of the prison as a model for modern institutions: power exercised through visibility, measurement and the ordinary timetable.

Book

The Beginning of Infinity

David Deutsch · 2011

A defence of good explanations as the engine of unlimited progress, and of optimism as an epistemological position rather than a mood.

Research papers

Evidence as it was actually reported.

Research paper

Attention Is All You Need

Vaswani et al. · 2017

The transformer paper: the architecture behind current language models, cited here because most arguments about AI and knowledge rest on it.

Articles

Reporting and essays worth citing.

Article

The Tutor in the Machine

Rosalind Grant · 2025

Field reporting from three school systems piloting adaptive learning software, and the gap between the demo and the classroom.

Article

The Bitter Lesson

Richard S. Sutton · 2019

Seven hundred words arguing that general methods which scale with computation beat hand-built human knowledge — the most quoted essay in the AI circle.

Podcasts & lectures

Arguments made aloud.