Successive export-control packages have moved from chips to cloud access, and now to the weights themselves. The analogy being invoked is nuclear: a general-purpose artefact whose diffusion is treated as a security event rather than a trade question. The counter-analogy is cryptography in the 1990s, where controls failed and mostly harmed the controlling state's own researchers.
The tension
Either capability diffusion is the primary risk, in which case openness is reckless — or concentration is the primary risk, in which case controls entrench exactly the few actors we cannot audit.
Evidence
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Micro-debates
Thesis, counter-thesis, rebuttal, closing — then the room scores the reasoning.
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Each perspective carries a rationale and the evidence behind it.
The nuclear analogy fails on excludability: weights copy at zero cost and leak through people, not shipments. But the cryptography analogy fails too, because the binding constraint here is compute, which is physical and countable.
Controls have so far produced domestic substitution faster than they produced delay, and they concentrate frontier capability in exactly the three firms least subject to external audit.
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