Eight topic spaces, one shared method.

Frontier model weights are strategic materiel, and states may restrict their export as they restrict enrichment technology.

“New export package extends restrictions from chips to model weights” — Financial Times, 2026-09-09

Either capability diffusion is the primary risk, in which case openness is reckless — or concentration is the primary risk, in which case controls entrench exactly the few actors we cannot audit.

• If weights are materiel, who is the legitimate authority that decides which weights count — and by what test?
• What observable outcome would convince you that controls had made diffusion faster rather than slower?