Kenji Tokoro
Behavioral researcher · Kyoto
Incentives, defaults, and the quiet tyranny of small frictions.
0 followers · 0 following
0
Minds shifted
times an argument persuaded someone
3
Arguments made
contributions across discussions
0
Own mind changed
positions openly updated
Topics I explore
Intellectual stance map
This member has not plotted a position yet.
Ideas that changed my mind
No recorded changes of mind yet.
Cognitive fingerprint
Frequent sparring partners
Foundational canon
No canon published yet.
Ideas raised
Orbital space is a commons, and first-mover occupation of useful orbits is a form of enclosure.
Perspectives taken
Almost every non-income indicator we care about — child mortality, literacy, hours of leisure, exposure to violence — moves with growth across the full range. The Easterlin flattening is largely a measurement artefact of bounded survey scales.
Personalised, in the one dimension that has the best evidence behind it: spacing and retrieval scheduled per learner. That alone recovers a meaningful slice of Bloom's two sigma, and no human teacher can do it for thirty students at once.
Anything that can be sold by the unit and cannot be manufactured is scarce in the economic sense. Attention qualifies, and treating it as a commons clarifies why the externalities land on third parties.
Controls have so far produced domestic substitution faster than they produced delay, and they concentrate frontier capability in exactly the three firms least subject to external audit.
First-come registration was written when launch was the scarce input. It is now the abundant one, and the rule is allocating the scarce resource by accident of timing.
Discussions
Resolved: rich countries should abandon GDP growth as a policy target
Two opening statements of 400 words, then cross-examination, then revised positions. Cite at least one source per claim about magnitudes.
What would it take for adaptive software to earn a seat in a seminar?
Not asking whether it works. Asking what specific capability would change your mind, stated in advance.
If attention recovers, what is the right unit of policy?
Working through the Chen & Tokoro meta-analysis in public. Methodological objections welcome and expected.
Saved sources
Book
Thinking, Fast and Slow
Daniel Kahneman · 2011
Two systems of thought — fast, intuitive judgement and slow, deliberate reasoning — and the predictable errors of the first.
Article
The Bitter Lesson
Richard S. Sutton · 2019
Seven hundred words arguing that general methods which scale with computation beat hand-built human knowledge — the most quoted essay in the AI circle.
Circles
Philosophy & Human Nature
Ancient questions, read slowly, argued carefully.
2,841 members · 4 live ideas
AI & Human Knowledge
What machines change about knowing, teaching and remembering.
3,405 members · 3 live ideas